Description: Computer network defense has models for attacks and incidents comprised of multiple attacks after the fact. However, we lack an evidence-based model the likelihood and intensity of attacks and incidents. We propose a model of global capability advancement, the adversarial capability chain (ACC), to fit this need. The model enables cyber risk analysis to better understand the costs for an adversary to attack a system, which directly influences the cost to defend it. More details available at http://bsidespgh.com/2015/speakers.php
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